S&P 500 has had a great start to the new year, now up nearly 5.0% year-to-date. Still, Short Hills Capital Partners’ Steve Weiss warns the recent optimism will fade moving forward.
Weiss explains his dovish view on equities
If anything, Weiss notes, the latest gain has further worsened the risk-reward for equity investors. Speaking with CNBC’s Scott Wapner, he said:
It’s worsened because you continue to have this optimistic dialogue that the worst is behind us. Fed is done. Yes, they’re closer to the end, but the impact is not closer to the end than the beginning. That’s what I’m focused on.
Last week, core inflation came in up 0.3% for the month (read more), reiterating why the central bank is signalling a terminal rate of 5.1% this year.
Versus the October low, the benchmark index is up more than 10% at writing.
Here’s what the Volatility Index is signalling
What’s also noteworthy is that the CBOE Volatility Index or the VIX fell all the way down to “18” on Friday – another signal (based on recent pattern) that a sell-off may be coming. Weiss added:
Neil Kashkari said yesterday, if you’re playing chicken with the Fed, I’m betting on the Fed every time. So, the risk-reward hasn’t changed this week. There’s still a false sense that we’ve bottomed, we’re going higher, so start buying.
On top of that, the U.S. job market is still keeping resilient, creating more room for the Federal Reserve to remain aggressive.
Earlier this month, a Piper Sandler analyst also warned that the equities market could sink to the 3,225 level in the coming months as Invezz reported here.
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